Iran “Activates” Special Mode: A Worrying Signal for the U.S. and Israel?
Officials at the Pentagon say Iran’s retaliatory attacks have dropped sharply, with missile launches down 90% and UAV deployments falling 83% compared to the early phase of the conflict.
Range of several Iranian missiles (Photo: Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs).
Bloomberg reported that the shift reflects lessons learned by the U.S. military from last summer’s confrontation with Iran. U.S. and Israeli commanders identified missile launchers as a key vulnerability, shifting strategy toward destroying launch platforms, underground silos, and command centers rather than relying solely on air defense interception.
At first glance, the data appears to support that view. On the first day of fighting (Feb. 28), Iran launched 309 missiles, followed by 584 on day two. But from March 9 to 17, the number dropped to an average of just 30 missiles per day.
Chart showing the number of weapons launched by Iran at the UAE as of March 17. Blue bars represent missiles, while yellow bars indicate UAVs (Photo: ISW).
Iran “Activating” a Special Mode?
Retired U.S. Army Col. Douglas MacGregor, a former Pentagon adviser during the first administration of Donald Trump, offered a different perspective.
He suggested the decline may partly reflect missile depletion—but not entirely. Iran may also be running out of high-value U.S. targets after damaging infrastructure, command-and-control systems, radar installations, and air defense batteries such as Patriot and THAAD across the region.
Questions about Iran’s missile and UAV stockpiles have become a major concern for U.S. and Israeli intelligence, though Tehran keeps such information tightly guarded.
According to The Guardian, Iran rejected two ceasefire messages from Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff, as its leadership believes it is not losing the war and that the White House is under growing political pressure.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi added that unilateral claims of victory by Trump would not end the conflict—suggesting Tehran may be prepared to continue hostilities in some form, including tightening control over commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran launches a massive wave of missile strikes in retaliation for the killing of senior leaders and top commanders (Photo: ISW).
A War of Attrition
An analysis by Center for Strategic and International Studies, cited by Military Watch Magazine, describes the conflict as “a race to see who runs out of ammunition first.”
Analyst Mark Cancian argues that Iran’s offensive missile stockpile may far exceed the interceptor inventories of the U.S. and its allies.
In fact, the U.S. entered the conflict with already strained air defense reserves. By early 2025, the Pentagon reportedly had around 600 THAAD interceptors remaining—each costing about $12.6 million—with more than 150 used in just 12 days of fighting with Iran in June 2025.
Supplies for Patriot systems had also dropped to roughly 25% of required levels by mid-2025, according to Pentagon assessments.
Sources cited by CBS News said that while Washington is aware of severe interceptor shortages among Gulf allies, little has been done to address the issue.
Meanwhile, Middle East Eye reported that the U.S. declined requests from some Gulf states for additional weapons and ammunition—potentially reflecting shortages and a prioritization of defending U.S. and Israeli positions.
Why Isn’t Iran Escalating?
Given these conditions, Iran could theoretically strike U.S. bases and interests across the Middle East with fewer constraints. So why hasn’t it intensified attacks?
One possible explanation: Tehran may have “activated” a form of strategic restraint—conserving missiles for a longer war.
How Large Is Iran’s Arsenal?
Russian analysts estimate Iran possesses at least 5,000 missiles of various types. Tehran appears to be using them selectively:
Short-range targets (250–350 km) such as U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain: Fateh-110 and Fateh-313—light, mobile, and highly accurate.
Medium-range targets (~600 km) in Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia: Zolfaghar (700 km range) and Qiyam-1 (800 km).
Long-range strikes (1,200–1,600 km) against Israel: Khorramshahr-4 ballistic missiles with a 2,000 km range and heavy payloads, capable of evading air defenses in the terminal phase.
Iran is the only country in the region with a fully domestic precision-guided missile production chain. It is believed to be producing around 100 ballistic missiles per month, with much of its manufacturing hidden in underground facilities operating around the clock.
The Bigger Question
In this asymmetric war, the central question remains:
Who will run out first—the United States and its allies, or Iran?
