What Would the United States Have to Sacrifice in a War With Iran?

Mar 13, 2026

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What Would the United States Have to Sacrifice in a War With Iran?

Rising tensions between the United States and Iran have sparked global concern about the possibility of a major conflict in the Middle East. If the confrontation escalates into a prolonged war, Washington could face a heavy price — from massive financial costs and military resources to the lives of its soldiers and the stability of its domestic economy.

War Costs Could Reach Tens of Billions of Dollars

One of the first sacrifices the United States would face is the enormous financial burden of military operations. Airstrikes, naval deployments, fighter jets, missile defense systems, and logistics support all require billions of dollars.

In the early days of a potential conflict, military operations alone could cost over $11 billion, covering weapons, deployment, and operational expenses across the region. If the war were to last months or even years, the total cost could rise to tens of billions — possibly approaching $100 billion when including extended operations and support.

Ultimately, American taxpayers would bear much of the financial burden of the conflict.

Strategic Weapons Stockpiles Could Be Depleted

High-intensity warfare requires large amounts of advanced and extremely expensive weapons. One of the most frequently used systems in U.S. strike operations is the Tomahawk cruise missile.

Each missile can cost between $2 million and more than $3 million, and major military operations can require dozens or even hundreds of them in a short period of time.

Military analysts warn that if the conflict continues for an extended period, U.S. strategic ammunition stockpiles could be consumed much faster than expected, forcing Washington to rapidly expand weapons production.

Risk to American Soldiers

Every war carries the risk of casualties. Iran maintains a large arsenal of ballistic missiles and has strong regional influence through allied forces across the Middle East.

If the conflict escalates, American military bases in the region could become targets for retaliation. This would significantly increase the risk of casualties among U.S. troops, particularly if the war spreads across multiple fronts or lasts for a long time.

Global Energy Markets Could Be Disrupted

Another major concern is Iran’s proximity to the strategic Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical energy chokepoints in the world.

Approximately 20% of global oil shipments pass through this narrow waterway. Any disruption caused by military conflict could send global oil prices soaring.

Higher oil prices would likely lead to rising gasoline costs, increased transportation expenses, and renewed inflationary pressure, affecting not only the United States but economies worldwide.

Political Pressure at Home

A prolonged war often triggers intense political debate in the United States. Lawmakers and the public may question the cost, objectives, and long-term strategy of the conflict.

Historically, extended military campaigns in the Middle East have created deep political divisions within the country. If a war with Iran drags on, public support could weaken, putting additional pressure on Washington’s leadership.

A War With a Very High Price

Although the United States possesses the world’s most powerful military, a war with Iran would still come with serious risks. From tens of billions of dollars in spending, depleted weapons stockpiles, potential troop casualties, and economic disruption, the price of conflict could be extremely high.

For this reason, many analysts argue that diplomacy remains the least costly and least dangerous path to preventing a large-scale war in the Middle East.

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Which Iranian Missile Could Have Struck a U.S. F-35 Stealth Fighter? A U.S. Air Force F-35 appears to have been hit by an Iranian air defense missile, forcing it to make an emergency landing. The Pentagon has confirmed the incident and said an investigation is underway. A U.S. F-35 stealth fighter is believed to have been hit by an Iranian air defense missile (Photo: TWZ). F-35 Reportedly Hit by Iranian Air Defenses Details surrounding the incident remain limited, but unverified reports and a circulating video suggest that a U.S. F-35 stealth fighter may have been struck by Iranian fire. If authentic, the footage would point to the use of an air defense system that The War Zone (TWZ) has repeatedly warned poses a top-tier threat to U.S. and Israeli coalition aircraft—including stealth platforms—operating in Iranian airspace. Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesperson for U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), said the F-35 was “conducting a combat mission in Iranian airspace” when it was forced to make an emergency landing. He declined to comment on whether the aircraft had been hit by hostile fire. According to a CNN report citing two unnamed sources, the aircraft may indeed have been struck by Iranian air defenses. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is said to have released infrared footage purportedly showing the F-35 being hit over Iranian territory, though the video has not been independently verified. If confirmed, it would mark the first known instance of a U.S. aircraft being hit by Iranian air defenses since the conflict began late last month. Previously, three U.S. Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles were lost to friendly fire from Kuwait in an incident that remains poorly understood. The possibility of fratricide in this case cannot be ruled out. What Air Defense System Could Threaten an F-35? While the United States has asserted air superiority over Iran, the skies over the Middle East remain far from secure for U.S. and Israeli air operations. Iran continues to field both mobile ground-based air defense systems and more sophisticated platforms that can be deployed across a wide area, leaving pilots with little time to react. Electro-optical and infrared (EO/IR)-guided surface-to-air missile systems present a particular challenge, as they are immune to radio-frequency jamming. Fourth-generation U.S. fighters may not even detect an attack until impact. Although the F-22 and F-35 benefit from advanced missile warning systems, risks persist—especially as air campaigns shift toward more direct strike operations, bringing aircraft closer to potential threats. “We are flying farther east and deeper into Iranian airspace to hunt and destroy one-way attack drone units and degrade Iran’s ability to project power beyond its borders,” said Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. However, operating deeper into Iran exposes aircraft to significantly greater threats than in more tightly controlled western airspace. TWZ has repeatedly cautioned that underestimating Iran’s ability to track and engage coalition aircraft would be a serious miscalculation. Even improvised systems assembled by Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen have inflicted damage on advanced fighter jets operated by Gulf Arab states and challenged some of the most sophisticated aircraft in the U.S. arsenal. Last year, a U.S. official told TWZ that an F-35 stealth fighter had to take evasive action to avoid a Houthi surface-to-air missile. If the newly surfaced video proves genuine, it would suggest the aircraft may have been targeted by a passive sensor system—one that TWZ has long warned is especially dangerous, as it does not emit detectable radio signals.