Who Was Behind the Assassination of Ali Larijani?

The assassination of Ali Larijani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, in an Israeli strike has exposed a significant security lapse in Tehran, raising concerns that tensions in the Middle East could escalate further.

Iran confirmed on March 17 that Larijani—one of the country’s central security coordinators—was killed in an attack in Tehran earlier that day.

The strike inevitably draws comparisons to the 2020 killing of Qassem Soleimani, the powerful commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Soleimani’s death not only removed a prominent military leader but also risked weakening Iran’s operational capabilities, leaving a void no successor has fully filled.

Larijani’s role carried similar weight. A deeply influential figure within Iran’s political system, his death creates not only a power vacuum but also new challenges for Tehran’s ability to coordinate policy across competing institutions.

At 67, Larijani was one of the most seasoned and influential politicians in Iran for decades. His career began during the Iran-Iraq War, where he rose through the ranks of the IRGC to brigadier general. He later held several key positions, including Speaker of Parliament from 2008 to 2020 and previously Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council.

He played a pivotal role in bridging multiple centers of power—from civilian institutions to military and security bodies—while advocating a more confrontational stance toward the United States and Israel. He was also central to shaping IRGC military operations.

Larijani’s influence stemmed from his ability to navigate rival factions within Iran’s elite, maintaining ties with the IRGC while preserving a degree of independence from hardline groups. This positioned him as a critical intermediary, helping sustain internal balance within the political system.

As a former parliamentary speaker, nuclear negotiator, and member of a powerful clerical family, Larijani commanded respect across Iran’s clerical establishment, the IRGC, and the state apparatus. That made him particularly valuable during periods of crisis, when unity can be as crucial as ideology.

In recent months, Larijani had also been involved in efforts to delay the transition of power tied to a potential new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. Some analysts argue that postponing such a decision could give Iran greater strategic flexibility in a post-conflict environment while avoiding constraints on future options.

Beyond domestic politics, Larijani wielded considerable influence over Iran’s international relationships, particularly with partners such as China and Russia, helping shape the country’s foreign policy for years. He also played a key role in advancing the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers, including the United States.

In August 2025, he was reappointed as Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, marking a notable political comeback after a period of relative marginalization. Within Iran’s layered power structure, the council serves as a crucial link between the military and civilian leadership, while also shaping key security and strategic policies.

For years, Larijani had been considered a high-priority target in U.S. and Israeli strategies aimed at weakening Iran’s leadership.

For Israel, targeting Larijani signals a broader objective: dismantling Iran’s governing structure, not merely degrading its military capabilities—even as the United States appears more focused on the latter.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed interest in identifying a potential intermediary or transitional leader in Iran, drawing comparisons to Venezuela’s interim leadership model under Delcy Rodríguez.

However, Larijani’s assassination significantly reduces the likelihood that such a figure could emerge in the near term.

Experts say the killing is not only a blow to Iran’s leadership but also a source of growing internal instability. With several influential figures sidelined or no longer active in politics, the loss of a consensus-builder like Larijani could complicate decision-making at the highest levels.

The incident may also affect public sentiment, potentially undermining confidence in the government’s ability to ensure the security of senior leadership as the conflict continues to intensify.